Research
Working Papers
Can Covariate Shocks Affect Perceived Relative Deprivation? Evidence using Excess Rainfall Shocks in Peru. Blog: Economics That Really Matters
Presented at: 2024 DARE Seminar Series (Colorado State); 2024 Annual SEEDS Conference (Georgia Tech); Midwest International Economic Development Conference (University of Chicago); Seminario MAP (Online); Pacific Conference for Development Economics (PacDev) 2024 (Stanford King Center on Global Development); Agricutural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meetings 2023; Development Lunch Fall 2023 (Department of AFRE & Economics, Michigan State University)
Draft
Perceptions of relative deprivation affect a range of economic and behavioral outcomes, such as support for redistribution, political attitudes, and risky behavior. There is scarce evidence regarding how covariate shocks that affect entire communities shape such perceptions. Using nationally representative panel data from Peru, and exploiting within-household variation in exposure to excess rainfall shocks (a covariate shock), I examine how such shocks shape households’ perceptions of standard of living relative to others in their locality – a measure of perceived relative deprivation. I find that excess rainfall shocks increase households’ perception of relative deprivation on average, as well as across both poor and non-poor households. The increase in perceived relative deprivation among poor households can be partially explained by the disproportionate economic losses that they experience following these shocks. However, this is not true for non-poor households who suffer no significant economic losses. Finally, households also systematically misperceive and underestimate neighbors’ welfare losses. This is a more salient explanation for the increased perceived relative deprivation among non-poor households following a shock. Suggestive evidence indicates participation in local neighborhood associations, which provide access to heterogeneous networks, can weaken such misperceptions. Additionally, access to social protection programs, such as conditional cash transfers and in-kind food assistance, attenuates the effect of these shocks on perceived relative deprivation. The paper informs our understanding of why demand for redistribution may remain muted during episodes of rising inequality and poverty, and reveal the potential limitations of community-based poverty targeting methods during crisis periods.
When the Temperature Drops, Perceptions Worsen: Effects of Extreme Cold on Perceptions of Government and Civic Participation in the Peruvian Highlands. 2023. (with Leah Lakdawala and Eduardo Nakasone)
Draft
We examine how extreme weather affects individuals’ perceptions of government and political institutions in Peru. We match granular data on cold weather shocks to individuals using variation in interview date and location and find that extreme cold worsens perceptions of democracy. Further, extreme cold reduces civic engagement in formal democratic institutions (participation in national elections) but increases participation in local neighborhood associations. We provide evidence that these effects work through several mechanisms: economic losses, increased incidence of illness, and higher crimes. Finally, we find that greater coverage of government-provided goods and services can attenuate the adverse effects of extreme cold.
Frosty Climate, Icy Relationships: Frosts and Intimate Partner Violence in Rural Peru. 2023. (with Katie Bollman, Leah Lakdawala and Eduardo Nakasone) Under Review
Draft
Violence against women - in particular, Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) - is a health concern for women across the world. We study the effect of cold exposure on IPV among Peruvian women. Using a dataset that matches women to weather exposure, we find that cold shocks increase IPV: 10 degree hours below -9°C increases the probability of experiencing domestic violence by 0.5 percentage points. These effects are larger for more extreme temperature thresholds. We then provide evidence that cold influences IPV through two main channels. First, extreme cold reduces income. Second, extreme cold limits time spent outside of the household, potentially increasing exposure of women to violent partners. To our knowledge, we are the first to measure relative significance of these two channels by using variation in cold timing to distinguish shocks that affect IPV through changes in income from those that act through time spent indoors. We find that the effect of cold on IPV is mostly driven by low temperatures that occur during the agricultural growing season, when income is most affected; 10 degree hours below -9°C during the growing season increases the probability of experiencing IPV by 1.6 percentage points. In contrast, we find that cold exposure outside of the growing season has no statistically significant effect on IPV.
Impact of COVID mortality on voting behavior: Evidence from Peru. 2023. (with Leah Lakdawala and Eduardo Nakasone)
[Draft Coming Soon]
How did the COVID-19 pandemic lead to changes in voting behavior? Are these changes been guided by drop in confidence or trust in political institutions? Using within district variation in COVID-19 incidence, this paper provides empirical evidence to these questions for a developing country context, Peru. Studying the 2021 Presidential elections in Peru, we find that- conditional on district and election-year fixed effects and a set of potentially confounding variables– districts with a higher incidence of COVID-19 before the elections, shifted their votes towards left leaning parties. This effect is largest for incidence of COVID-19 three months and 4-6 months before the election. This result can most likely be explained by examining changes in voter turnout, and confidence or trust in political institutions.
Pre-Ph.D. Peer-Reviewed Publications
Continued Misery or a Change in Fortune? The Case of the Howrah Foundry Industry. Book Chapter in Industrialisation for Employment and Growth in India, Cambridge University Press, 2021
Book Chapter
Has India Deindustrialised Prematurely? A Disaggregated Analysis.(with R. Nagaraj) Economic and Political Weekly, 2020. Media Coverage: mint, Scroll.in
Paper
Land as Collateral in India.(with Sudha Narayanan) Economic and Political Weekly, 2019. Media Coverage: mint
Paper
An Unequal Process of Urbanization. Economic and Political Weekly, 2017.
Paper