Judhajit Chakraborty

Using quarterly, county-level employment and wage data spanning 1996–2023, this study investigates the labor market consequences of floods—historically among one of the most lethal and expensive natural disasters in the United States. We distinguish between flash floods with sudden, rapid and violent onset and floods with gradual, slower onset patterns (non-flash floods), and explore how the impacts vary across the choice of temporal window (sub-annual versus annual), location (inland versus coastal counties), sectors, and existing labor market conditions. Our results show that an additional day of flash floods in a quarter reduces county-level employment and wages by 0.13% and 0.15% respectively. These sub-annual effects are not made up in future quarters, and do not appear at annual frequencies. As part of the analysis, we simulate total annual wage losses for the U.S. over the period 1996-2023, with annual average wage losses of $6.2 billion (in 2023 USD) due to flash and non-flash floods. Importantly, heterogeneous effects reveal that economically vulnerable counties such as those with high labor market slack, experience substantially larger negative impacts from both flood types. We find both coastal and inland counties face negative economic disruptions. Our findings uncover important sub-annual labor market disruptions and associated wage losses, underscoring that identifying these sub-annual impacts is crucial for understanding loss in economic welfare and for designing or improving rapid policy responses.

Perceptions of relative deprivation affect a range of economic and behavioral outcomes, such as support for redistribution, political attitudes, and risky behavior. There is scarce evidence regarding how covariate shocks that affect entire communities shape such perceptions. Using nationally representative panel data from Peru, and exploiting within-household variation in exposure to excess rainfall shocks (a covariate shock), I examine how such shocks shape households’ perceptions of standard of living relative to others in their locality – a measure of perceived relative deprivation. I find that excess rainfall shocks increase households’ perception of relative deprivation on average, as well as across both poor and non-poor households. The increase in perceived relative deprivation among poor households can be partially explained by the disproportionate economic losses that they experience following these shocks. However, this is not true for non-poor households who suffer no significant economic losses. Finally, households also systematically misperceive and underestimate neighbors’ welfare losses. This is a more salient explanation for the increased perceived relative deprivation among non-poor households following a shock. Suggestive evidence indicates participation in local neighborhood associations, which provide access to heterogeneous networks, can weaken such misperceptions. Additionally, access to social protection programs, such as conditional cash transfers and in-kind food assistance, attenuates the effect of these shocks on perceived relative deprivation. The paper informs our understanding of why demand for redistribution may remain muted during episodes of rising inequality and poverty, and reveal the potential limitations of communitybased poverty targeting methods during crisis periods.

Violence against women — in particular, Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) — is a health concern for women across the world. We study the effect of cold exposure on IPV among Peruvian women. Using a dataset that matches women to weather exposure, we find that cold shocks increase IPV: 10 degree hours below -9°C increases the probability of experiencing domestic violence by 0.5 percentage points. These effects are larger for more extreme temperature thresholds. We then provide evidence that cold influences IPV through two main channels. First, extreme cold reduces income. Second, extreme cold limits time spent outside of the household, potentially increasing exposure of women to violent partners. To our knowledge, we are the first to measure relative significance of these two channels by using variation in cold timing to distinguish shocks that affect IPV through changes in income from those that act through time spent indoors. We find that the effect of cold on IPV is mostly driven by low temperatures that occur during the agricultural growing season, when income is most affected; 10 degree hours below -9°C during the growing season increases the probability of experiencing IPV by 1.6 percentage points. In contrast, we find that cold exposure outside of the growing season has no statistically significant effect on IPV.

We examine how extreme weather affects individuals' perceptions of government and political institutions in Peru. We match granular data on cold weather shocks to individuals using variation in interview date and location and find that extreme cold worsens perceptions of democracy. Further, extreme cold reduces civic engagement in formal democratic institutions (participation in national elections) but increases participation in local neighborhood associations. We provide evidence that these effects work through several mechanisms: economic losses, increased incidence of illness, and higher crimes. Finally, we find that greater coverage of government-provided goods and services can attenuate the adverse effects of extreme cold.